A few years ago the MA Dept. of Education changed the way dropouts are reported which introduced the concept of the Graduation rate - how many students of the freshman class make it through to Freshman Orientation in the Nagle Auditorium all the way to the Graduation Ceremony on Mac Aldrich Field. (Yes I am aware graduation is no longer on the football field - we can't have high heels puncture the new turf.)
Now, we all are aware that the Graduation Rate has been consistent at abound 50%, but I decided to do an analysis of the dropouts per grade just to see where in the 4 years the students were dropping out. The data that I used in my chart came from the MA Dept. of Education. My chart and analysis can be found here. (Open in a New Tab or Window to follow along.)
Generally, Dropout Prevention strategies are targeted at the 9th grade. Whether it is the complexity and pressures of additional peers, a larger school, or the difficulty of academics, the shift to the high school seems to be when a lot of the dropouts occur. In fact for the first two years observed in the analysis, nearly 42% of the dropouts of the graduation classes occurred from the shift to freshman and sophomore years. When incoming freshman classes of 1,000 lose 600 students by the end of the first year, there are significant issues. Certainly Durfee High School receives the negative press for the dropout rate, but these issues can build for years. This is why Literacy Programs at the elementary and middle school levels are so important.
Great News: The rate of dropouts for the freshman classes have been declining. I am not sure what is responsible for the changes, but the chart clearly shows that freshman dropouts decreased from 42% to 25% and now to 15%!! Compare an incoming class of 1,041 which becomes 608 the following year to an incoming class of 1,009 (32 less) but has a sophomore enrollment of 854 (246 more!!). The numbers don't lie and the facts are that the Durfee staff have done an excellent job in retaining the freshman class. The credit can be shared with the middle school staff as well.
Sophomore to Junior: In comparing the junior classes with their respective incoming freshman class, a unique trend also appears. There was a 3 year period where the percentage of dropouts lingered near 50%. It is probably no coincidence that these high rates coincide with the implementation of MCAS. However, since then there has been a steady decline... 50.28%, 48.11, 44.97, 38.06, 33.78. This means that a greater percentage of students are making it to their junior year of high school than in a very, very long time!!!
Historically, most of the dropouts occurred in the freshman year. Durfee has managed to make significant strides in reducing that percentage from 42 down to 15! Durfee has also made significant strides in student enrollment from the sophomore year to the junior year. Where it was once expected that 45-50% of a graduating class would be gone even before the junior year, the percentage has already decreased to 33%.
It only makes sense to me that if a greater percentage of freshman are becoming sophomores, and a greater percentage of sophomores are becoming juniors, that we are on the verge of a MAJOR turnaround where a greater percentage of enrolled seniors can become GRADUATING SENIORS!
The only obstacle in the way appears to be severe cuts at the middle schools and at Durfee which will reverse any progress that has been achieved. Let us not look back in a few years and point to FY09 as the year that reversed all the progress.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
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4 comments:
Great observation! I wonder why this isn't something that the school department has put out there. Durfee's graduation rate has been a huge black eye and this seems to speak well for the near future.
Don Rebello was a great principal, probably one of the best if not the best that the "new" Durfee has had. He put into place a lot of good things that are fortunately still bearing fruit. It is too bad that the school system lost him. He wanted a small raise (and deserved it) but the administration wouldn't budge but now we ended up with a lesser quality principal and ended up having to pay him quite a bit more then what Mr. Rebello wanted. What a shame!
One of the ways that Fall River and the rest of the cities with similar socioeconomic problems could address the dropout rates is by closely examining the policy of retention "staying back." Many arguments are made that if a student has not demonstrated that he or she has satisfactory learned the material, he or she should be kept back. Being retained one year reduces the chances of that student graduating. When retained for the second time the chance of that student graduating is drastically reduced. I would venture to say that a student retained for the third time never graduates from high school.
Students who start school on time and never repeat a grade typically graduate when they are either 17 or just turned or are about to turn 18. In the years that I worked at the high school, I can't recall any students in regular education graduating at age 20 or 21. The exceptions certainly would be those students in special education who can remain in school until age 22.
As I started to think about this more, I began to see it as a self-fulfilling prophecy. What would the high school do if no one dropped out. Well for one thing, if 1000 entered as freshman and 1000 graduated four years later, the enrollment at Durfee High School would be 4000.
The system as it exists today continues to operate as it might have 40, 50, 60, or 70 years ago when dropouts were simply students who had minimal interest in school, but who then had an alternative. The alternative was a respectable one. Go to work in one of the many textile mills in the Spindle City. Dropouts were then quickly dropping in to work. Most of today's dropouts epitomize the term "dropout." When I would ask students what they might do if they dropped out, the response I heard most often was "I'll be staying out late and getting up late." I was never much bothered with the few students who said they had a job and offered that they might return to school at a later time. I believed that if or when they became dissatisfied with the job that they left school for they might then be motivated to return. The success of the Durfee High Night School Program makes my point.
I'm starting to ramble. This is enough on the subject for now.
To Anon 10:04,
Please don't think you were rambling, it was a very interesting comment. I am not an educator, but I do have some experience working with dropout prevention.
Thankfully, I never repeated a grade in school, but it is easy to see that a student that stays back once will have the barrier of insecurities when dealing with academics. Also, who wants to be a 19 or 20 year old in school with other 17 and 18 year old students?
I'm not sure if this remains the case, but some schools had an attendance policy that if a student was absent more than 5 days in a semester, that would lead to failing all classes for the semester. Although I don't want kids to be absent from school, what motivation does a student have after those 5 absences to do well in class or even bother coming to school? If a student has 7 absences and has a B, then the student earned the B, and school policies that fail students for absences are part of the dropout problem.
Some students stay back, and the system we have in place basically dooms them to failure afterwards. I have thought for several years now that schools should have separate paths to graduation as alternatives to the K-12 model.
The related problem is that 16 or 17 year olds may not be mature enough for college. Perhaps a slightly longer school year so that students could graduate at 11th grade, while still having an extra year available for some students who have been retained.
Perhaps the 11th and 12th grades could be for academics and internships or a community service project. The students who need more academic time, would then remain in school to catchup and graduate on time.
We can talk about parental involvement and a student's own motivation to learn, but I agree with Anon that the K-12 model perpetuates failure as well.
I'll throw the question back to Anon with the hopes of a response.
What changes would you propose to make graduation more attainable for students who have been retained?
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